CHL First Round Picks That Have Played in the NHL
Someone sent me an email yesterday asking a very reasonable and seemingly easy question to answer, that got me thinking. The question was, how many first round CHL selections in NHL entry drafts make it to the NHL? Seems easy enough, except that one has to figure out how long it takes from draft time to get to the NHL. Although we all know that several first round picks crack the roster of their drafting team the following Fall, what about the others? Conventional wisdom among NHL folks and scouts is to give the player five years before making a conclusion, but in a non-scientific way, I wanted to look at this.
BTW, very important caveat here, if you want to compare across draft years, to be statistically valid, you would have to control for the different talent level in each pool. But this was an overnight mini-study, and I haven't figured out how to do that anyway. But stay tuned and I will figure it out and bring you more (probably on a more appropriate website too). I will let you know in a few weeks.
I started with the 1998 NHL draft, because I wanted at least five years of data, giving a player five years to make it to the NHL. Easy enough, five and five are ten, however, that's actually six years of past data, so six and five are eleven. It was late at night, so bear with me, and anyway we get an extra year to look at.
Oh, and I arbitrarily chose an appearance in 10 games to mean a player "made it to the NHL". This meant that at least one year of an entry level contract kicked in. I did not want a player to have a cup of coffee and then be returned to junior (although several netminders are included that got a few games here and there, added up to 10, but never will be NHL netminders in a real way. that's the problem with any arbitrary cutoff). A couple of recently drafted guys, Zach Bogosian and Chris Stewart are on the rosters of their NHL clubs and should make the 10 games soon, but they are not included in the "made it" category below. They probably would be if I waited a few weeks.
I am having trouble making graphs of the data, and this is in a somewhat difficult to read format, but the categories are first the Year, next the No. Of CHL First Round Picks who've played in the NHL, then Total No of CHL Players Selected in the First Round, and last and most important the Percentage of CHL First Rounders Who've Made it to the NHL
1998 /19/ 21 /90%
1999/ 11/ 14 /79%
2000 / 9 /11 /82%
2001 / 12/ 14 / 86%
2002 / 11/ 13/ 85%
2003/ 17/ 17/ 100%
That's pretty high percentages in all years. 2003 is known is one of the best ever draft crops, and to be fair, all the guys have made it to the NHL, save Hugh Jessiman, who was an NCAA player at the time he was drafted.
Over the same time period, let's look at those non-CHL players that have made it to the NHL.
Year/ No. Of Non-CHL First Round Picks who've played in the NHL/ Total No. of Non-CHL Players Selected in the First Round/Percentage of Non-CHL First Rounders Who've Made it
1998 / 6/ 6 /100%
1999/ 10/ 14 / 72%
2000 / 16 /19 /84%
2001/ 14/ 16/ 88%
2002 / 13/ 17/ 76%
2003 / 12/ 13/ 92%
Guess what, the percentages are almost the same, with the exception of the 2002 draft year, where those chosen from the CHL have been more successful in getting to the NHL than those that were either NCAA-bound or from Europe.
Now lets look at the more incomplete recent picture, i.e., from 2004-2008.
Year/ No. Of CHL First Round Picks who've played in the NHL/ Total No of CHL Players Selected in the First Round/Percentage of CHL First Rounders Who've Made it
2004/ 9 /12/ 75%
2005 /11/ 17/ 65%
2006/ 6 / 16/ 38%
2007 / 6 /16 /38%
2008/ 6 /20 /30%
As for the non-CHL first round drafted players:
2004 / 10/ 18/ 56%
2005/ 8/ 13/ 62%
2006/ 8 /14 /57%
2007 /1 /14 /7%
2008/ 2 /10 /20%
This is more interesting than I originally thought. One would expect that it might take the Non-CHL players a little longer to make it to the NHL, but that only appears to be the case for about the first two years after a player is drafted. But it is true is that most of the players that are NHL-ready after being drafted are from the CHL. Although Russians Nikita Filatov and Viktor Tikhonov are playing now after being drafted last summer, the others of recent memory have almost all been CHLers.
In any case, it looks like the NHL teams do an excellent job of picking the guys that will be playing in their league five years hence. If you look at the percentages above, it seems until then the numbers rise, after which the percentages level off at a fairly high number. So, the five year mark that is used by the NHL and other scouting personnel appears to be a correct guideline to employ.
Interesting and more complicated question than when it was first contemplated.
As I said, I will be doing more research in this area over the coming months, and I will let you know where you can find it.